News about poll, Harris, and Donald Trump

What will we wake up to on November 6? Here are four Harris/Trump scenarios I consider plausible, created using the 2024 @CookPolitical Demographic Swingometer: www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/survey-research/swingometer/four-november-scenarios-mapped-out-2024-cook-political-report

With new post-debate polls, Harris up to a 2.2 pt lead in @CookPolitical's national polling average. In the crosstabs, Harris is consolidating Black voters (now up to 79%-16%) and 18-29 voters (now 56%-40%) - still off Biden's '20 pace, but big gains. www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/cpr-national-polling-average/2024/harris-trump-overall pic.twitter.com/OXoa3A64q6

NYT/Sienna poll in PA is not odd! It simply has Harris up by almost the same exact margin in PA as @JohnFetterman defeated Dr Oz by in the 2022 PA senate race. www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/upshot/harris-trump-poll-pennsylvania.html

Embarrassing disclosure: I was thinking about whether Harris should make a play for TX, which isn't polling *that* far behind e.g. AZ, and the thought "She shoulda picked Beto for veep" briefly crossed my mind. This lasted for no more than 0.2 seconds. I apologize for the error.