Blaine Bateman, EAF

Silicon Photonics is the science and engineering used to leverage silicon semiconductor foundries to access to the vast knowledge, experience, and installed capital base in semiconductor manufacturing to produce photonic integrated circuits (PICs) with high yield, and low cost. As used in reference to commercial devices, Silicon Photonics is a finished product that includes use of silicon PICs and whatever else is needed to complete the desired product. The "modern era" of Silicon Photonics… Show more

Silicon Photonics is the science and engineering used to leverage silicon semiconductor foundries to access to the vast knowledge, experience, and installed capital base in semiconductor manufacturing to produce photonic integrated circuits (PICs) with high yield, and low cost. As used in reference to commercial devices, Silicon Photonics is a finished product that includes use of silicon PICs and whatever else is needed to complete the desired product. The "modern era" of Silicon Photonics, meaning significant level of component integration in a single PIC, dates from around 2000; in the following 17 years, thousands of universities and dozens of companies have contributed to the technology, investing 10s of billions of dollars.

This work is intended to provide a detailed understanding of the Business Situation regarding Silicon Photonics. This is not a typical market research report, in that we do not develop market forecasts nor slice them across various market dimensions. While many companies, universities, and other laboratories are mentioned, in general we won't develop detailed vignettes about them. Instead, we focus on the technology status, the many options open, and what that means to participants in the value chain.
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The latest version of a lecture series I have given to the CU Business School classes in International Marketing. A brief argument that the economic development of a consumer class in China is a greater force than their role as a low-cost manufacturing source. Further, China is nearing a tipping point where they will have a significant role as an innovation engine, a position long occupied by the US and Europe.

The uncertainty and attendant risk in sales forecasts used in corporate budgeting processes is often ignored. The pervasive use of single-value forecasts (Savage, 2012) to “roll up” a forecast for the firm ignores important aspects of asymmetry that is likely present in each individual forecast provided by sales managers. The best way to estimate the rolled up forecast is by performing a Monte Carlo simulation, after representing the input forecasts as distributions.

A significant problem for many firms seeking help from a strategic framework (Porter’s or any other) is that the framework provides a basis for qualitative analysis but does not indicate what a firm should do. In many cases the frameworks do not enable an obvious comparative analysis among possible strategic scenarios.

In this paper I discuss an approach using the five forces framework directly to suggest where to focus. In particular, I deal with the problem of a diversified firm… Show more

A significant problem for many firms seeking help from a strategic framework (Porter’s or any other) is that the framework provides a basis for qualitative analysis but does not indicate what a firm should do. In many cases the frameworks do not enable an obvious comparative analysis among possible strategic scenarios.

In this paper I discuss an approach using the five forces framework directly to suggest where to focus. In particular, I deal with the problem of a diversified firm seeking strategic insight when activities in some markets (or segments) may be under-performing and the alignment of the firm’s value chain to the different markets may be at varying levels of maturity. Show less

A key role of any business analyst is to provide estimates to management so that a decision can be made. I can argue that all decisions made by rational people are made using data (even if they appear to come from “gut feelings” or emotions or intuition), but the quality of data varies widely. Often, the
desired data aren’t readily available, and the cost to get them directly is prohibitive in time, resources, or expense (i.e., extensive surveys, contracting a research firm, etc.). Below I… Show more

A key role of any business analyst is to provide estimates to management so that a decision can be made. I can argue that all decisions made by rational people are made using data (even if they appear to come from “gut feelings” or emotions or intuition), but the quality of data varies widely. Often, the
desired data aren’t readily available, and the cost to get them directly is prohibitive in time, resources, or expense (i.e., extensive surveys, contracting a research firm, etc.). Below I discuss using available data to model the desired data. This can be called ‘using a proxy’. Show less